Oct 182017
 

So much info your going to puke!

I’m just gonna do it. I’ve been working on my trading platform with extreme anal prejudice and if you want it, then you got it. Folks I’m not only gonna upload my 4K “Super Grid” EVERYDAY! but I’m going to upload an additional 12 of my brand new immaculate spread charts that are the MVP of commodity trading. The info that the spread charts gives a trader is very informative and is, in my view, absolutely essential for success. When the future contracts roll from one to another there is certain price action that occurs that has nothing to do with fundamentals or seasonality and if you can spot what the big funds are doing as they move through contracts you can have an important key of information that most traders completely miss. Let’s face it 99% of traders are super lazy and do not want to do any home work. They want someone to hit the button for them. They don’t even want to wipe their own ass…

"The day you stop learning is the day you lose."  ~JVonD

A while back while seeking information on spreads I was trying to find charts for them and there didn’t seem to be any floating around the web that were easily accessible and current. I was pretty much forced to build spread charts in my platforms. Over the past year I’ve been watching them very closely and just recently I have expanded them to 4 different contracts per chart which is HUGE! The information is amazing. The main important information is the Volume and Open Interest. This allows you to see when the funds are starting to build new positions. Once you know when they make their move you can see what direction they will be building. So when the roll out of the front month contract occurs they will be flushing out of it and building into the back months, and it’s not always in the very next active contract.

The information is all in your face but you can’t read the information without charting it. I mean you can do it without the charts but that’s only if you can constantly do math in your head all day long on many different trading instruments. Well, let’s face it, you need charts…  So I setup my charts to plot the spread price action of the front month against the next 3 contracts via the chart below those later contracts. Below the front month contract is actually the 2nd and 4th contracts spread.

This hog spread charts shows you exactly why there are so many crazy gaps and huge price spikes on continuous daily charts. You will NOT be able to ride the HEZ7 contract to 90. The only way to trade hogs to 90 would be to buy all 4 contracts then maybe a half year later your 4 contract trade may be trading 90 if your lucky and the distance sum of the 4 contracts would equal that. Like, buy the 4 contracts at the same time, right now! Hopefully you can ride the Z from 63-68 then sell it there near the expiration, and you have previously bought the G contract for $68 at the same time you bought the Z and you try and ride that one from 68 to 75 till that one rolls, etc, etc… So it’s virtually impossible to trade those huge price spikes on a single contract. Now maybe if a catastrophe like a hog disease kills off half the hogs you may be able to ride that contract up $20 but that’s a very rare occurrence.

Above you can see how the different contracts make the price action seem crazy but once you know what is behind the craziness it all makes a lot more sense. Now you know the secret! or at least a little more of what my thinking is. But of coarse I’m not a trading professional , and I didn’t learn this from anyone so I can’t say if the info here is good or bad but I’m just trying to figure it all out one day at a time. Shoot me a comment if you think you can add anything. Thanks!

Feel free to visit the #TradeBuddiesLive page and you’ll find 12 spread charts and a whole bunch of other great trading resources.

Hope it helps. Cheers!  ~J    =D

Jul 132017
 

Here ya go. Enjoy folks!

I know it’s tough to see what the deal is so here’s the weekly chart.

A $20+ gap! The fucking piece of shit filled the other fricken huge gap. It’s total insanity.

I know it’s tough to see the magnitude. So here, let me make it real easy for ya.

Jun 132017
 

So in my quest to fill my cranium with knowledge on every single aspect of every commodity I came across something interesting that might be huge in my trading future. So not only am I keeping a close eye on multiple contracts but I want to see what happens to the open interest as time goes on and right now I’m noticing a big difference in an occurrence in crude that might be huge. Notice the front month contract of crude.

Is crude interesting?

I’ve been noticing that when looking at commodity charts that the open interest has been going up a lot on big moves down, which has confused me, and as the time fades on this crude front month JULY contract we see the open interest flush out of it. But what drew me to noticing this was looking at the contracts that are further out.

Now on this AUG contract we can see a considerable difference in open interest as if maybe they are rolling out of that JULY and right into the AUG. Maybe I’m wrong but let’s look a out a bit further.

and surprise surprise! We see a little lift on both the open interest and positive price action. I’m thinking the funds may be slowly rolling contracts.. But are they long contracts..? Well, it kinda seems like they may be pushing up the price a little bit but not to much. So how about we just take a look at the open interest big picture.

So there ya go..  Now we have the bigger picture of whats going on. But lets even take it one further cause you can never cut your trades short when it comes to being informed. The COT will take our trading to the next level.

Ok, so now I can see something kinda of interesting. When looking at the crude COT you always have to keep an eye on the swap dealers. They aren’t all that important in most commodities but in crude they are HUGE! Swap dealers and Producers are the sell side of the market and looking at this chart we can see them add to their short position which would usually mean that there could be some future bullish price action coming up. Now some of the CME floor traders are talking about the low 40’s for crude. Ok! well that’s all and good but when swap dealers are adding to shorts I would be very cautious shorting here.

So now we have the big picture and in conclusion,, I have no clue. But I can say keep an eye on the spread and I guarantee you will find an amazing trade. If they roll into a hefty long position, which they are currently in and adding to, it will be a huge move and the spread will show you what is actually happening. Now I think they may slam the front month down as they pile into the further out contracts, continuing to hold long positions,  so I’ll be looking for a couple opportunities to trade the spread back in from -1$ as the front month will be moving faster than the back months. But shiot, I donno…

Good luck!  ~J

We’ll be talking about this on Trade Buddies Live. Join the conversation by tweeting with #TradeBuddiesLive.

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May 242017
 

My Trade Buddy JHunt told me to believe, but I’m just not feeling the Euro trade he mentioned.. It’s not really my style I guess. But I do believe in his trade and if it works out then my trade will surely be very nice.  =D

GIVE ME SOME BEANS!!!!!!!  Crush my nuts if you want and make oil and meal out of them and feed them to livestock. They are made of titanium and love prevails. My love for beans and the farmers busting their ass to feed us for pennies. Let’s do it funds. You want to mess with me. I’m going to kick your ass!

Over sold, weak trending market,,  Kamen would say “Got to look for the move up”.

Crop condition reports will start up in a couple weeks. As for now stagnant chop with the funds holding shorts like a bunch of jerks trying to screw everyone.

The funds will reverse, China buying more and more at a record pace, US farmers getting washed out, Brazil currency reversed back up, USD coming off..
Fundamentals are strong!!

  • BUY ZSX7 @ 9492

NOVE BEANS! I believe! But not as much like Lenny Kravits and more like Polar Express.

Believe this ->

Pulled off the position today and had some good trades in beans. It was tough but it worked out. Got like 27$ out of it. Here’s the updates – https://www.reddit.com/r/Commodities/comments/6d7b9m/i_believe_soybeans/

May 152017
 

I WANT OATS!!!!  I’M HUNGRY!!

Give me my oats!  Hurry up.  I bought them today with an old order that I forgot about, but I pulled it off on the opening gap this evening for a little change. But shoot, I put another order at 224.25, the bottom of the diamond. Now as soon as these jerks (like Colbert) get done slamming it I’ll be buying me some of that stuff.

COT looks pretty good too.

Gonna put the order at the 200DMA.

-BUY ZON7 224.25

May 102017
 

Lately on #TradeBuddiesLive we have been keeping an eye on spreads, and man there have been some interesting things going on. Here’s some charts I’m very much interested in. Tune in on today’s live show for more info.

Lean Hogs-

Live Cattle –

Wheat –

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