Oct 182017
 

So much info your going to puke!

I’m just gonna do it. I’ve been working on my trading platform with extreme anal prejudice and if you want it, then you got it. Folks I’m not only gonna upload my 4K “Super Grid” EVERYDAY! but I’m going to upload an additional 12 of my brand new immaculate spread charts that are the MVP of commodity trading. The info that the spread charts gives a trader is very informative and is, in my view, absolutely essential for success. When the future contracts roll from one to another there is certain price action that occurs that has nothing to do with fundamentals or seasonality and if you can spot what the big funds are doing as they move through contracts you can have an important key of information that most traders completely miss. Let’s face it 99% of traders are super lazy and do not want to do any home work. They want someone to hit the button for them. They don’t even want to wipe their own ass…

"The day you stop learning is the day you lose."  ~JVonD

A while back while seeking information on spreads I was trying to find charts for them and there didn’t seem to be any floating around the web that were easily accessible and current. I was pretty much forced to build spread charts in my platforms. Over the past year I’ve been watching them very closely and just recently I have expanded them to 4 different contracts per chart which is HUGE! The information is amazing. The main important information is the Volume and Open Interest. This allows you to see when the funds are starting to build new positions. Once you know when they make their move you can see what direction they will be building. So when the roll out of the front month contract occurs they will be flushing out of it and building into the back months, and it’s not always in the very next active contract.

The information is all in your face but you can’t read the information without charting it. I mean you can do it without the charts but that’s only if you can constantly do math in your head all day long on many different trading instruments. Well, let’s face it, you need charts…  So I setup my charts to plot the spread price action of the front month against the next 3 contracts via the chart below those later contracts. Below the front month contract is actually the 2nd and 4th contracts spread.

This hog spread charts shows you exactly why there are so many crazy gaps and huge price spikes on continuous daily charts. You will NOT be able to ride the HEZ7 contract to 90. The only way to trade hogs to 90 would be to buy all 4 contracts then maybe a half year later your 4 contract trade may be trading 90 if your lucky and the distance sum of the 4 contracts would equal that. Like, buy the 4 contracts at the same time, right now! Hopefully you can ride the Z from 63-68 then sell it there near the expiration, and you have previously bought the G contract for $68 at the same time you bought the Z and you try and ride that one from 68 to 75 till that one rolls, etc, etc… So it’s virtually impossible to trade those huge price spikes on a single contract. Now maybe if a catastrophe like a hog disease kills off half the hogs you may be able to ride that contract up $20 but that’s a very rare occurrence.

Above you can see how the different contracts make the price action seem crazy but once you know what is behind the craziness it all makes a lot more sense. Now you know the secret! or at least a little more of what my thinking is. But of coarse I’m not a trading professional , and I didn’t learn this from anyone so I can’t say if the info here is good or bad but I’m just trying to figure it all out one day at a time. Shoot me a comment if you think you can add anything. Thanks!

Feel free to visit the #TradeBuddiesLive page and you’ll find 12 spread charts and a whole bunch of other great trading resources.

Hope it helps. Cheers!  ~J    =D

Oct 262016
 


JVonD gives you a wealth of trading tips. He explains the importance of using longer term volume profile charts to help catch long trends and how to use that with his new trading checklist. And much much more!

DOWNLOAD HERE

DISCLAIMER - JVOND SUCKS AT INVESTING! FOR LEARNING PURPOSES ONLY!
Aug 302016
 

BUY /LEZ6 @107.15

2016-08-30_11-58-17

The big johnson candle. DEC Live Cattle. The price action today was nuts. Going into the close there was major buying following a slow depressing grind lower. Looks like a head fake break down there. Go long!

download

I’ve been catching some good trades on Cattle and Hogs at these low levels but I haven’t been posting them. Kinda chilling out on the Market Trade posts. I did long lean hogs though recently and I’m in the red. Look for big moves off the harvest lows dudes!!!  With all the commods on lows they should make monster moves to the up side VERY soon.
Don’t forget I’m watching December contracts! You need to be able to take a ton of pain. Like a kick in the nuts. For example I was already in cattle this morning so I was down around $450 before they rallied it into the close. Ended up with $500 positive and hopefully we’ll see a lot more big players step in for tomorrows trade after they take notice of this price action.

nutcrush

9/6/16 – BUY /LEZ6 @103
I’m getting fucking hosed. I made a perfect trade for a day and didn’t take it off. DOH! Just added 1 more. Man, good think I got balls of titanium. This is really something you should never do. My brain keeps telling me to stay in the trade because of certain levels on the big picture. How much lower can it go?  Shit I don’t know but I guess it’s good for the poor cows if those stupid cow Nazi’s can’t farm them no more.

9_6_2016 , 12_39_29 PM

9/8/16 – Holy fuck! These god dam bastards keep trying to shake everyone out. It’s like they literally hold traders by their ankle upside down and shake every last penny out of them. So I’m noticing a couple things about the cattle trades and looking at the big picture you’ll notice that we are pretty much on the lower value area of the all the collected volume from the last 10 years. Looks like Feeder Cattle (GF) has a little more room for downside but the Live Cattle (LE) has already hit what seems to be the bottom sitting well below the 10 year lower value area.

2016-09-08_GF

2016-09-08_LE

So I’m holding my Live Cattle and getting hammered on it. I feel like the Michael Burry from the story “The Big Short” when he holds his position for a long long time while the crooks on Wall Street jack the market and he gets crushed in the process until the trade finally turns his direction. I need to dig out my heavy metal albums I think. I’m ready to double my position when these fucking assholes push it even lower. So folks, if you learn anything from this trade it is wait for the trade to “turn and confirm” and don’t try and catch the falling knife.

9/9/16 – SOLD/LEZ6 @104.975

9/12/16 – So I put a limit order to get out of one of my contracts right around my average which got filled Friday. I did have to pay up for it by just a few but it was worth it because the 105 seemed like it had a little resistance and in case they crushed it again I wanted to be able to double down when it sank lower again. Fortunately it didn’t drop and we may have just seen a BIG bottom in Live Cattle. YEY!  I do have a stop right now at 105.90 and now trading 106.725 I have a great chance of keeping the trade going because I’m hoping tomorrow it will clear 107 and it seems there is good support here and today was WASDE so to see good up momentum following WASDE is strong. So at this time my average for my trade should be right around 105.25ish. So this will be a profitable trade unless I do something real stupid and take my stop out which I don’t want to do and like Gary Kamen says “Do not let a winning trade turn into a loser.” which I did at the very beginning of this trade. Here’s what I’m thinking, if there is a DI cross coming up I will be looking to add in contracts or scalp intraday long. Here’s the cool thing. If I see the confirmations I’m looking for I can simply scalp off value area low resets and stay in as long as possible and if the trade go’s against me I can leave it on and be confident that the chances of it being a positive trade before contract expiration is very good. Got to be on the right side of the big picture. I have to keep an eye on the long term trend. Hope to see the 10 year POC (point of control) on the chart above which is around 124. Below you can see the current daily chart with the DI cross I’m looking for.

2016-09-12_LE

9/13/16 – SOLD/LEZ6 @105.90
Darn it! They are gonna chop this sucker. I’m out with a small profit. I’ll be looking to buy the dip.

2016-09-13_LE

DISCLAIMER – JVOND SUCKS AT INVESTING! FOR LEARNING PURPOSES ONLY!

Jun 282016
 

BUY /ZOZ6 @202.25
Well, I’m going for it again. Contracts are changing over and shit looks good for the oats trade. You have to look at the December contract otherwise the chart looks completely different. 200 seems like a huge support and after the stupid BREXIT ripped the dollar and brought down commodities she should be good. I’m a little concerned with a report coming out on Thursday but for the most part the COT and crop progress seems a bit bullish. I’m really hoping the other grains start rallying again, that would help..

2016-06-28_Oats

6/30/16 – SELL /ZOZ6 @202.25
I had to pull it off cause of a big crop report coming out.

DISCLAIMER – JVOND SUCKS AT INVESTING! FOR LEARNING PURPOSES ONLY!

Jun 072016
 

BUY /CTZ6 @65.87
Buy some Cotton! I got the December contract.

BuyCotton

7/10/16 – SELL /CTZ6 @65.48

7/10/16 – BUY /CTZ6 @65.46

WASDE freaked me out and I fucked up using stupid TOS while setting up a “double sell stop” to execute a reversal on a big move down but it ended up being a “sell limit” and triggered imidietly. So I reentered the position following WASDE at a lower level.  So with cotton trading around $65 I’m currently down about $260.  FUCK!
The chart below looks descent though with the COT showing that big money is looking for cotton to move a little higher.

Cotton 7/10/16

6/13/16 – BUY /CTZ6 @63.75
Tough trade. I doubled my long here. I need to have patience and let the trade work while taking some pretty huge pain. My average is now 64.60 with 2 contracts.  I will take one off right near my break even.

6/16/16 – SELL /CTZ6 @64.61
I got filled during the early morning, at break even, when I sleeping. So now my average is right here at 64.60 and expecting a nice pop off this base at 64.

6/22/16 – SOLD /CTZ6 @64.90
This morning I put a trailstop on it. I’m really freaked out about this stupid Bregzit thing so I cleaned out my account. I guess I’m a little worried about the dollar moving big which would effect all the pricing on commodities so I have nothing in my account right now. So for the Dec. contract I’m currently up a bit over $100. I’ll be looking to get back in on a lot of commodities very soon.

DISCLAIMER - JVOND SUCKS AT INVESTING! FOR LEARNING PURPOSES ONLY!
Feb 102016
 

OMG this is absolute madness! A market anomaly that is the most insane thing. SPY 185!
Or wait that SoyBean 999.75 thing was just as crazy. But anyway,, the 185 level for SPY is pretty heavy duty, and now it’s a very obvious thing. If you haven’t noticed, today is the 3rd day in a row of the SPY close at 185. Think it’s a coincidence? In the most volatility market in a long time what are chances it will close 185 3 days in a row.  WTF!

Where do I begin..?

Check out the SPY daily.

2016-02-10_16-05-40

Huge gaps and huge runs, but wait… Today’s action was real weird. Yellen spoke and the market went nuts and spiked way up to break to new session highs, but then look.

2016-02-10_16-21-10

The /ES squeezed all fricken day on the 15min, of coarse until the end of the day when they stuck it to the 185 on SPY. When have you seen that before? Plus this morning crude dropped into the 27 range and it would usually take the market to lower levels, but the market didn’t give a shit cause Yellen opened her big mouth.

2016-02-10_16-23-59

But the Yellen noise was again a huge backfire. The price action of the after hours market on the /ES has been almost as big as the daily. Nuts!  The gaps have been huge.

So this is just some weird BS that I’ve notice the last few days. Here’s some posts from the last couple days to sum it all up.

2/9/16 –2016-02-10_16-28-53

2/8/16 –

 

2016-02-10_16-07-30

 

So look out below. I don’t think we can hold this 185 for to much longer.

Dec 282015
 
  • BOT /CTH6 @64.25

I like the look of the cotton chart. Higher highs and higher lows. Also breaking some descending trend lines. It’s gonna fire out of the squeeze pretty soon. It looks like like it has confirmed momentum to the upside.

2015-12-28_20-12-38

12/28/15 – SELL -2 /CTH6 STP 63.62

12/31/15 – BUY +1 /CTH6 @63.33

I put in a reversal stop and it triggered and I road it down to a lower level. I took a loss on this stupid trade. It was dumb..

DISCLAIMER - JVOND SUCKS AT INVESTING! FOR LEARNING PURPOSES ONLY!
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