Nov 072016

Wow!  Full on tests on just about everything AG & Live Stock. Seems most markets have now turned from a supply market to a demand market.

WHEAT chop… I kept trying to grab the WHEAT break out at 420 but I got grassed (weak trending market) so I’ve been patiently waiting. So here we can see a nice pull back but if you notice today’s price action there is a wick into the close. They tried to push it lower but buyers stepped in at those lower prices and it closed up nicely off the bottom. We were about to see a bearish engulfing but with the pull back we should see some upside tomorrow.


CORN tested that 345 which is what Bubba was talking about buying a week ago and we can see today there was a major base created there intraday where hardly any traded the 345 but the 345.25 was bought up and it held into the close. I will most likely buy this following this price action. Everyday there seems to be good demand coming in. Watch tomorrow for a break out!



BEANS was looking for the close above 1000 but didn’t get that although it did test it. If it is very bullish above 1000 take it long and you can have a pretty tight stop just below the 1000 or an add in a little lower. I almost want a “Buy Stop” GTC just above the 1000.

OATS was a great trade for me but now we see it wants more. But if you look at the bigger picture, like the 1 year volume profile, it is on major resistance. If it can’t punch through the 230 I may just have to short this thing but I really don’t like the long here especially cause the tweezer top.


LIVE STOCK!!! Bought Feeder Cattle off the floor. I have a great trade with a good stop for profit. The mid price was below my stop into the server close but the pit close was well above my stop. They wicked new lows and closed above that with a good cushion. Seems there is buyers and strong value here on all live stock. There’s wicks on the bottoms showing that they tested some key areas and that buying had come in. Look at the whole numbers. 116, 100, 47


Don’t forget to look at the different contracts and not just active. What I thought was going to be the most boring chop day ended up showing some major key signs.
GOOD LUCK!  I’m bullish here in just about all the Ags, and live stock above, besides Oats, with the price action.

Oct 182016

Grains – Pull back maybe coming up on the 3 main grains. Wheat, Corn, and Beans. If they form a handle and break out it could be the real deal. Watch out for the Over-Bought in a Weak Trending Market.
Oats – This is the one I’ve been waiting for. The only future that might meet all 10 criteria of my check list so I need to stay in it for the long haul if possible. It came down and stopped me out for a good gain but then it found some buyers and I jumped back on when it formed the handle and broke out. I’m long Oats both in the front month and in the H7 contract and both are preforming nicely.
Cotton – Let’s see if cotton can sustain this push.
Coffee – Just triggered a break out long. The coffee trade seems more like a small swing than a nice big long, when running through the check list, but let’s see if the ADX can breach 30.
Live Cattle – Looking nice off the bottom. Nice gradual rise. 3 days had tests of whole dollar figure. 98 test, 99 test, 100 test so I’ll be looking for a reset here around 97.25 and then look for a handle break out to get a good long. This could be a huge trade.
Hogs – Holy crap! New lows in hogs! It’s insane. Tomorrow will be exciting in the Hog Market.


Screenshot - 10_18_2016 , 3_03_58 PM

Aug 302016

BUY /LEZ6 @107.15


The big johnson candle. DEC Live Cattle. The price action today was nuts. Going into the close there was major buying following a slow depressing grind lower. Looks like a head fake break down there. Go long!


I’ve been catching some good trades on Cattle and Hogs at these low levels but I haven’t been posting them. Kinda chilling out on the Market Trade posts. I did long lean hogs though recently and I’m in the red. Look for big moves off the harvest lows dudes!!!  With all the commods on lows they should make monster moves to the up side VERY soon.
Don’t forget I’m watching December contracts! You need to be able to take a ton of pain. Like a kick in the nuts. For example I was already in cattle this morning so I was down around $450 before they rallied it into the close. Ended up with $500 positive and hopefully we’ll see a lot more big players step in for tomorrows trade after they take notice of this price action.


9/6/16 – BUY /LEZ6 @103
I’m getting fucking hosed. I made a perfect trade for a day and didn’t take it off. DOH! Just added 1 more. Man, good think I got balls of titanium. This is really something you should never do. My brain keeps telling me to stay in the trade because of certain levels on the big picture. How much lower can it go?  Shit I don’t know but I guess it’s good for the poor cows if those stupid cow Nazi’s can’t farm them no more.

9_6_2016 , 12_39_29 PM

9/8/16 – Holy fuck! These god dam bastards keep trying to shake everyone out. It’s like they literally hold traders by their ankle upside down and shake every last penny out of them. So I’m noticing a couple things about the cattle trades and looking at the big picture you’ll notice that we are pretty much on the lower value area of the all the collected volume from the last 10 years. Looks like Feeder Cattle (GF) has a little more room for downside but the Live Cattle (LE) has already hit what seems to be the bottom sitting well below the 10 year lower value area.



So I’m holding my Live Cattle and getting hammered on it. I feel like the Michael Burry from the story “The Big Short” when he holds his position for a long long time while the crooks on Wall Street jack the market and he gets crushed in the process until the trade finally turns his direction. I need to dig out my heavy metal albums I think. I’m ready to double my position when these fucking assholes push it even lower. So folks, if you learn anything from this trade it is wait for the trade to “turn and confirm” and don’t try and catch the falling knife.

9/9/16 – SOLD/LEZ6 @104.975

9/12/16 – So I put a limit order to get out of one of my contracts right around my average which got filled Friday. I did have to pay up for it by just a few but it was worth it because the 105 seemed like it had a little resistance and in case they crushed it again I wanted to be able to double down when it sank lower again. Fortunately it didn’t drop and we may have just seen a BIG bottom in Live Cattle. YEY!  I do have a stop right now at 105.90 and now trading 106.725 I have a great chance of keeping the trade going because I’m hoping tomorrow it will clear 107 and it seems there is good support here and today was WASDE so to see good up momentum following WASDE is strong. So at this time my average for my trade should be right around 105.25ish. So this will be a profitable trade unless I do something real stupid and take my stop out which I don’t want to do and like Gary Kamen says “Do not let a winning trade turn into a loser.” which I did at the very beginning of this trade. Here’s what I’m thinking, if there is a DI cross coming up I will be looking to add in contracts or scalp intraday long. Here’s the cool thing. If I see the confirmations I’m looking for I can simply scalp off value area low resets and stay in as long as possible and if the trade go’s against me I can leave it on and be confident that the chances of it being a positive trade before contract expiration is very good. Got to be on the right side of the big picture. I have to keep an eye on the long term trend. Hope to see the 10 year POC (point of control) on the chart above which is around 124. Below you can see the current daily chart with the DI cross I’m looking for.


9/13/16 – SOLD/LEZ6 @105.90
Darn it! They are gonna chop this sucker. I’m out with a small profit. I’ll be looking to buy the dip.



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