Feb 102016
 

OMG this is absolute madness! A market anomaly that is the most insane thing. SPY 185!
Or wait that SoyBean 999.75 thing was just as crazy. But anyway,, the 185 level for SPY is pretty heavy duty, and now it’s a very obvious thing. If you haven’t noticed, today is the 3rd day in a row of the SPY close at 185. Think it’s a coincidence? In the most volatility market in a long time what are chances it will close 185 3 days in a row.  WTF!

Where do I begin..?

Check out the SPY daily.

2016-02-10_16-05-40

Huge gaps and huge runs, but wait… Today’s action was real weird. Yellen spoke and the market went nuts and spiked way up to break to new session highs, but then look.

2016-02-10_16-21-10

The /ES squeezed all fricken day on the 15min, of coarse until the end of the day when they stuck it to the 185 on SPY. When have you seen that before? Plus this morning crude dropped into the 27 range and it would usually take the market to lower levels, but the market didn’t give a shit cause Yellen opened her big mouth.

2016-02-10_16-23-59

But the Yellen noise was again a huge backfire. The price action of the after hours market on the /ES has been almost as big as the daily. Nuts!  The gaps have been huge.

So this is just some weird BS that I’ve notice the last few days. Here’s some posts from the last couple days to sum it all up.

2/9/16 –2016-02-10_16-28-53

2/8/16 –

 

2016-02-10_16-07-30

 

So look out below. I don’t think we can hold this 185 for to much longer.

Apr 012015
 

– SOLD STRANGLE SPY 100 MAY 15 213/187 CALL/PUT @1.50
On yesterdays Trade Buddies Live show I checked out the pricing of options on the SPY as compared to a great stock like AAPL and it looked amazing to me. It was a no brainer to the effect that it didn’t even need to be in a neutral zone to get in and still be confident that the trade will be nicely profitable. The only way this trade will go bad is if a nuclear bomb goes off somewhere.  After 1 month the options at it’s same price are worth practically nothing so a %50’r should come around in just a few weeks if it trades a normal range. I like how it’s somewhat a delta neutral trade but there is lots of room for downside movement and still be safe.  Although I’ve been very bearish I’m not wanting to fight the market anymore and just go with the flow and make the it work for me.  One thing to remember is that the market is still trending upward, 45 degree angle, and may have put in a solid top, but it should bounce around right in this range unless something catastrophic happens.  The reason I say it is toppy is when I’m watching the futures action I see that not to many traders want to buy the 211 area.  We’ll see I guess…

On the chart below you can see a volume profile for 20 days worth of trading.  It has a pretty solid range and it will have trouble breaking out above that 211 area. I do expect to get tested on either side but I am completely neutral and I will ride out any bounce till it comes back to my zone and I’ll be able to get out and buy the trade back minus all that time decay.  With the short sell off here pumping the volatility a little it may help.

4/21/15 – BOT STRANGLE SPY 100 MAY 15 213/187 CALL/PUT @1.03
Stoked for my 100th trade.  I love the SPY trades and have since loaded up on them. %43 profit after commissions.  I wish they could have all been this smooth.  Strangling the ETF’s is really sweet because timing isn’t that much of a factor considering there are no earnings to worry about. The SPY’s have incredible liquid spreads so it’s easy to get in and out at great prices.  If you noticed the price rallied quite a bit but I was still able to get a great profit when usually if a stock moves that much you would have trouble getting anything if one of the sides gets tested a bit. I could have left it on but it never hurts to take some profits…

DISCLAIMER - JVOND SUCKS AT INVESTING! FOR LEARNING PURPOSES ONLY!
Jan 062015
 

– BOT SPY 100 FEB 15 201 PUT @4.61
Still shorting the market even when it’s already crushed from the last few trading days. Check out the analysis below this chart.

Lots of traders (tasty traders) are out there selling premium looking for normalization but I ain’t seeing it. Let me show you why. I often check the $BPSPX on stock charts and you’ll see it going into the red, but it’s early in the cycle. I was expecting it last week but it was just chopping around and flat. Once it went red on this chart I started getting more short by buying Puts because the vol is increasing still so selling premium now isn’t a good idea in my mind. So what seemed to be a little correction could be a much bigger correction than first thought and without the chart below it is really hard to see it. Hope it helps!

1/6/15 – SOLD SPY 100 FEB 15 201 PUT @4.60
Fucking got stopped out and I had it in the profit range and it filled out below that range cause the spread got $.05 wider.  SHIT! %.05 loss.

1/6/15 – SOLD /ESH5 @2000.75
1/6/15 – BOT /ESH5 @1996.50
I got really pissed off and did a /ES scalp to make up for this stupid rally. Ends up being a little over $200 after commissions.

DISCLAIMER - JVOND SUCKS AT INVESTING! FOR LEARNING PURPOSES ONLY!
May 082014
 

SELL SPY JUN14 192 CALL @1.09
Here’s a real basic trade. You have to have tier 3 advanced options trading profile with your broker cause I’m selling a “naked call”. I don’t see the S&P 500 going above 1900. If the SPY is above 193 at Jun expiration I would lose on the trade. I’m planning on selling it within 2 weeks to make a little loot if the stock is still below 188. The index is having a lot of trouble breaking above 189 and keeps getting rejected when it comes close. As the market sells off the value of my option trade will gain value so if it drops 5-8% I’ll probably buy it back right away and make some quick cash. This is one of the most widely traded indexes so the liquidity makes the moves worth that much more. My first SPY trade, figured I’d give it a shot.

 

Chart below is a little better. You can see where the green bar broke the Bollinger Band and came back in. Looking for a good 5% rally over a couple days to get in on the trade but got in real late on the way down. It may go back up a bit but I’ll keep my eye out for a good drop over the week or so. I got time to bail if needed or even let it go till expiration. But the main strategy is to get out quick or half way till expiration (within 2 weeks.)

5/15/14 – SPY is falling off fast after an up move that had me on the edge of my seat. I continued to hold the position with a higher risk of having to roll or close with a loss. I will most likely close this position today for a decent profit. I put in a “buy” order in to buy back the option at around 186.40 for about half the full value of the option at expiration.

5/16/14 – Just closed out of the trade. Considering I showed my option lot size (usually won’t) I made around $250 after transaction cost. Stoked for my first SPY trade. I’ll be waiting till it pops to get back in on the down side. I won’t be trading the upside.

DISCLAIMER – JVOND SUCKS AT INVESTING! FOR LEARNING PURPOSES ONLY! 

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